Friday, May 21, 2010

The Built-In BBQ Affect

I've just read an interesting on-line book review, 'Gentrification and Its Discontents' (click to view).

The reviewer comments on - what I feel - are important issues related to Seguin's on-going cultural transition. In the following excerpt, I sense the cottager/resident dynamic in our rural setting partially described in terms of classic urban village gentrification...

'[H]ow the working class was driven out of the West Village, as gentrifiers like Jacobs drove up assessed values and rents. Progressive, reformist city planners, supported by seemingly most of the Village’s blue-collar residents, favored a relatively low-impact urban-renewal scheme to build hundreds of below-market-rate homes in the neighborhood—a plan Jacobs and a group of largely affluent residents successfully fought on the grounds that it would destroy the area’s character. Whatever the merits of the opposing positions, one of the proponents of renewal was surely prophetic in arguing in 1961, “If the Village area is left alone … eventually the Village will consist solely of luxury housing This trend is already quite obvious and would itself destroy any semblance of the Village that [Jacobs and her allies] seem so anxious to preserve.”'

It's a case of opposites, certainly: New York vs. Seguin. Fundamental change is the common feature.

This leads to a thought: the Seguin transitional zone, in close orbit to supernova Muskoka, may see a progressive destruction of the cultural heritage which status quo advocates profess to adore. Fundamental economic forces (increasing real estate turnover) will alter the way things are. If the population level remains the same - low tolerance for land severance, steep new building costs - the cost of property ownership and assessments rise and rise.

It comes down to the draw of attractive North Muskoka (aka Sequin) as a relatively low entry to cottage country and resultant, rising assessment values. Objectively, Seguin is a good investment for future appreciation in land value. Case in point: someone purchases a WWII era bungalow lot, renovate up and over the original structure with a faux timber frame look, add a great room, and a backyard kitchen with built-in BBQ. Then flip it for a big profits. Repeat.

Such is the way of real estate things. It's a heavenly or hellish vision of the future of Seguin depending on your perspective. Rising property values is good as an investment if you can handle the high entry costs. Or, it's bad if you're a young working family that wants to get on the property ladder. Like the working class of certain New York neighbourhoods, the inflow of moneyed property redecorators may slowly drive out local working families.

I'm just tossing ideas around. Though it's important to consider.

Surely, the road to hell is paved with built-in BBQs.